When Risk Models Meet Reality: Rethinking Value in a Warming World
November 20, 2025 | Dessy Vautrin
Across the financial sector, a quiet recalibration is underway.
The models and assumptions that once defined risk are being tested by a new, physical reality — one that no spreadsheet can fully predict.
According to S&P Global, there is now a 50% probability that global warming will exceed 2.3°C by 2040, potentially leading to cumulative losses of up to one-third of global GDP. Meanwhile, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that climate-related physical risks — from droughts to floods and wildfires — have evolved from a niche concern into a systemic challenge for global financial stability.
For decades, our financial architecture has relied on models that assume the future will mirror the past. But climate dynamics don’t follow linear patterns. They accelerate, compound, and reshape the very foundations of economic resilience.
The question is no longer whether these risks will affect markets — but how we can adapt financial systems to channel capital where it strengthens long-term stability, not short-term gain.
Imagine an economy where “risk-adjusted return” includes the capacity of assets and communities to withstand change.
Where resilience, not volatility, becomes the ultimate benchmark of value.
AT BLUE ORB,
We believe this transformation starts with the energy system — the backbone of every economy and the source of 75% of global greenhouse-gas emissions.
By funding the energy transition in emerging markets, we address one of the world’s most systemic imbalances — unlocking private capital for clean, scalable solutions where they are needed most.
By 2040, 85% of global energy consumption will come from emerging economies. These regions hold the key to global decarbonization — and with it, to the stability of the financial system itself.
The energy transition is not only a climate imperative. It is an opportunity to realign global finance with the realities of a changing planet — and to build the foundation for shared, long-term prosperity.
Dessy Vautrin
Chief Marketing Officer with 20+ years investor relations, sales and marketing leadership, in local, regional and global roles (North America, Latam, Asia, Africa, Europe).
